Current Polling Trends for the Upcoming Bundestag Election (February 2025)

As Germany prepares for an early Bundestag election on February 23, 2025, following the collapse of the coalition government, recent polling data sheds light on the political landscape. The latest surveys reveal shifts in voter sentiment that could significantly influence the outcome.

The demise of the previous coalition, known as the 'traffic light coalition,' was marked by a failed trust vote requested by Chancellor Olaf Scholz from the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This unexpected turn of events has prompted the electorate to reconsider their party preferences ahead of the upcoming vote.

Major polling organizations, such as Forsa and Infratest dimap, regularly conduct surveys to gauge public opinion on party support. The 'Sunday Question' provides insights into how voters might cast their ballots if elections were held imminently. According to data collected up until February 5, 2025, the dynamics among the major parties have been notably altered since the last election.

Initially, the SPD enjoyed a period of strong support following the 2021 federal elections. However, it has since been eclipsed by the Union parties, which have regained ground in the polls. The Greens, who also saw a rise in voter support post-election, have faced a decline in their popularity, alongside the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which now faces challenges to secure representation in the next parliament.

In contrast, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as a significant beneficiary of the declining support for the coalition parties. The AfD achieved a milestone by rising to become the second strongest party in the polls by mid-2023, although it experienced a slight dip in support at the beginning of 2024. During this period, a new political entity, the Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), gained traction, capturing over 5% of voter preferences, indicating a shift in the political landscape.

As the election date approaches, the parties are vying for voter attention through various campaigns and debates. The election will serve as a critical juncture, with multiple potential coalitions being discussed. The Union is particularly optimistic about forming alliances, potentially with the SPD or the Greens, to establish a governing majority.

The possibility of a coalition with the AfD remains contentious and is currently ruled out by other parties. This scenario raises questions about the future political configuration in Germany, with comparisons being made to Austria, where a similar far-right party has successfully entered the governing fold.

Voter sentiment is also driven by the candidates representing the major parties. Friedrich Merz, from the Union, is viewed as having strong prospects for the chancellorship, supported by the party's favorable polling numbers. In contrast, Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck from the SPD and the Greens, respectively, face more challenging paths to leadership.

As the political atmosphere continues to evolve, the upcoming polls will not only reflect the public's current preferences but also set the stage for the potential formation of new governing coalitions in Germany. The latest polling data is crucial for understanding the shifting allegiances and the overall direction of German politics as the nation gears up for a significant electoral event.