Analysis of Approval Ratings from Kohl to Scholz: A Historical Perspective

The trajectory of approval ratings for German chancellors has varied significantly throughout history, particularly in times of crisis. This analysis examines the approval ratings of former chancellors Helmut Kohl, Gerhard Schröder, Angela Merkel, and the current chancellor Olaf Scholz, highlighting the factors influencing their public perception.

Olaf Scholz is facing unprecedented challenges as the first chancellor of Germany to lead a coalition government comprising three parties with differing ideologies. His leadership comes at a time marked by significant geopolitical tension, notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has impacted his approval ratings adversely.

Since assuming office, Scholz has struggled to maintain favorable approval ratings. As of January 2025, his ratings plummeted to historically low levels, marking him the least popular chancellor in the post-reunification era. Comparatively, predecessors such as Kohl, Schröder, and Merkel experienced more favorable public sentiment towards the end of their terms.

Several factors contribute to Scholz's declining approval ratings. The onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine shortly after his inauguration initially provided a temporary boost in support. However, subsequent economic challenges, particularly rampant inflation, have led to widespread public dissatisfaction with his administration's handling of these crises.

In early 2023, a leaked draft of the heating law sparked tensions within the coalition, leading to perceptions of government disarray. This was compounded by a ruling from the Federal Constitutional Court in late 2023, which deemed the coalition's budget unconstitutional, further damaging Scholz's credibility.

Conversely, Angela Merkel, who served as chancellor for 16 years, witnessed a different trajectory. Unlike Scholz, Merkel's popularity grew over her tenure, particularly during crises such as the financial crisis of 2007 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Her decisive actions during these periods garnered public approval, reinforcing her position as a trusted leader.

Merkel's tenure also faced significant challenges, notably during the European debt crisis and the refugee crisis in 2015. While her approval ratings dipped during these times, she successfully regained public trust through her management of the COVID-19 pandemic, showcasing the resilience of her leadership style.

Gerhard Schröder's chancellorship, on the other hand, presents a divided narrative. His initial term was marked by high approval ratings, bolstered by his opposition to the Iraq War. However, the implementation of the controversial Hartz reforms led to a substantial decline in his popularity, which ultimately tarnished his legacy and the Social Democratic Party's standing in subsequent years.

Helmut Kohl's approval ratings mirrored the ups and downs of his long tenure. Initially benefiting from the euphoria of German reunification, Kohl's popularity waned due to economic challenges and broken promises regarding tax increases. Despite these setbacks, he managed to rebound during election campaigns, demonstrating the fluctuating nature of political support.

In conclusion, the approval ratings of German chancellors illustrate the complex interplay between leadership, crisis management, and public sentiment. As Olaf Scholz navigates his tumultuous tenure, the historical patterns established by his predecessors offer valuable insights into the factors that shape political approval and public trust.