Warmer? Yes. Man-made? Well... (NOT SURE WHICH SECTION THIS SHOULD GO!!!)

Sun 29 Jul

From 2001 to 2004, Kevin Safreed and other meteorologists like him in the United States military were very busy. Their job was to look at data and choose the best place for the US Army to build bases in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Iraq. Wind currents, rainfall, and general weather patterns were to be gathered, collated, and eventually analyzed to determine which locations could best serve the soldiers and their equipment. In many respects it was a nearly impossible mission.

"There is so little data on so many parts of the world, it was very difficult to select a good location," he told this reporter. It seems that the places where the military is most needed is in mostly uncharted territory, literally. Many of the charts that were made were the first ever of any detail in these areas of the Middle East.

The earth has always had periods of cooling and warming. In 1816, there was no summer in Germany and food riots broke out. Snow fell in Albany, New York, in June of that year. Ice was seen in rivers in July and August in Pennsylvania. The winter of 1829-1830 was one of the coldest ever recorded, and the three winters prior to that were also bitterly cold. It was a mini-Ice Age and sent thousands of immigrants to America's shores. In a large area of the UK, February, 1947, was perhaps the coldest winter ever recorded, and most records began in many areas of Great Britain in the 17th century.

But the same cannot be said for most of the rest of the globe. "When we hear that 7 or 8 of the hottest summers in history were in the last decade, that isn't really telling us much," continued Mr. Safreed. Data collection on weather in the USA wasn't begun in many areas till 100 or 150 years ago. He has also spent a good deal of time in Germany and said that records are spotty in many areas here as well. "There is not as much data and records in America or Germany as most people would be led to believe." Los Angeles was nothing until the growth of Hollywood in the 1910s, Florida was a swamp until another 30 years after that. 

"As a scientist I'd like to see a much larger sample size, perhaps 500 years or more, before I make such generalizing statements. Is it getting warmer, yes it is, at least where we have been keeping records. Is it man's fault? That isn't nearly as certain." And this view is held by many Americans, though for most Europeans, they believe that man has clearly expedited the process of global warming.

But Mr. Safreed and others are not completely convinced, though not unpersuadable either. "The question for me remains, if we weren't using fossil fuels so much would the earth be getting warmer. I actually believe it's quite possible. I also think we should hedge our bets, and reduce where we can-without destroying our economies in the meantime."

Mr. Safreed told this reporter that there are quite a few meteorologists who share his view. It is a minority, he admits, but more than a couple. He feels as if they have been completely drowned out by the media and their emphasis on 'Climaggedon'. "One swallow does not make a summer," he says, pouring himself a cold drink. "Nor does a decade of unseasonably warm or cold weather signal a trend. We just can't be sure, not entirely, not yet."

Write a comment ...
Post comment

Olympiaturm Turns 50

Munich's Olympic Tower was  opened exactly 50 years ago - on February 22nd 1968 - for the first time. With its exactly 291.28 meters, it is to this...

Why Hillary Is Good For Your Health

Hillary the hawk at Stachus
Passing through the basement floor at Stachus these days you might not be sure if you can trust your eyes, as Hillary the Harris Hawk is likely to...

Oh dear, Obikes

Obike Muenchen
So far since launch, 6800 Obikes bikes have been positioned in Munich. More and more of these bicycles-for-rent are being deliberately damaged. Not...

Winter Tollwood 2017

Tollwood Winter Festival
Tollwood Winter Festival 2017 is currently taking place at the Theresienwiese in Munich.
This year's festival motto is: "We, all. Let's stand up and...

Engineering Jobs Fair in Munich

Munich Engineering Jobs - accepting CVs
The Association of German Engineers (VDI) is hosting its annual engineering recruitment fair on Thursday 16th November in Munich. The day-long event...

Second S-Bahn weekend maintenance closures

SBahn delays
For the second - and last - time of the year, the S-Bahn Stammstrecke (main line) will be out of service due to repair and maintenance works.


Munich Security Conference 2018 - City Center becomes a restricted area

Munich Security Conference 2018
This year's Munich Security Conference (MSC) will be held from February 16 - 18th, 2018 at the "Hotel Bayerischer Hof" again. On the agenda are, in...

Institutionalist Ciudadanos won the election, but pro independence parties retain majority

Ines Arrimadas, leader of Ciudadanos with 37 seats obtained most of the support from voters (25,3), but it wasn´t enough to break a majority of pro...

DB Sprinter Hits Technical Issues

It should have been the glorious end of a long and expensive journey; after more than 25 years of planning, political discussions, building halts and...

Is an Executive MBA Worth it?

Chicago Booth MBA
The Future of Business Education: Is an Executive MBA Worth it? Join Chicago Booth in Munich for a candid panel discussion and audience Q&A with...

Rosenheimerplatz Knife Attack - multiple victims

UPDATE: Munich police have now confirmed the man being held is in fact their prime suspect and the emergency situation is now over. UPDATE: a man...

Munich Top City for IT and Engineering

Munich top city for engineering jobs
Back in 2014, a study by the European Commission confirmed that Munich is the city that offers Information and Communication Technology (ICT)...

Advertise with The Munich Eye
Public Service Advertisements
Shades of Love
Spanish Finca for rent Web Site Optimisation
Newspaper sudoku