US Calls for Multilateral Nuclear Arms Treaty Involving China

Following the expiration of the last major nuclear arms reduction agreement between the United States and Russia, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed that the US will not pursue a bilateral replacement treaty with Moscow. Instead, the US administration aims for a new framework that also includes China, reflecting the shifting dynamics of global nuclear capabilities.

The previous treaty, known as New START, was established in 2010 between Washington and Moscow and officially expired on Thursday. This agreement had set strict limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and missile launchers for both countries, capping warheads at 1,550 and launchers at 700 for each side. The conclusion of New START marks the end of an era of direct arms control between the two largest nuclear powers.

Rubio stated that the traditional bilateral approach is no longer sufficient in the current geopolitical landscape. He emphasized that a future treaty must address the growing nuclear arsenals of emerging powers, notably China. According to Rubio, the rapid expansion of China's nuclear stockpile poses new challenges to global security and must be considered in any future arms control discussions.

Chinese nuclear capabilities have reportedly grown significantly since the inception of New START. Estimates suggest that China's stockpile has increased from just over 200 warheads in 2020 to more than 600, with projections indicating that this number could surpass 1,000 by 2030. US officials argue that excluding China from arms control agreements would undermine the effectiveness and credibility of any future treaty, potentially jeopardizing American security interests.

Russian officials have responded critically to the US position. Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia and current Deputy Chair of the Security Council, questioned why other nuclear-armed states, such as the United Kingdom and France, are not being included in the proposed framework. The Kremlin has expressed regret over the lapse of New START but has also acknowledged China's stance against participating in multilateral negotiations, noting that Beijing's nuclear arsenal remains comparatively smaller than those of Russia and the US.

The US administration has indicated that the process of negotiating a new, broader arms control agreement is likely to be lengthy and complex. Previous treaties between just two powers required years of detailed negotiations, and the inclusion of additional nuclear states introduces further hurdles. Despite these challenges, the US maintains that a multilateral approach is essential to address evolving global security risks.

Observers note that the end of New START leaves a significant gap in the international arms control architecture. Without verifiable limits and transparency measures, there is concern about a potential acceleration of nuclear buildups and increased tensions among the major nuclear powers. The path forward for arms control remains uncertain, as the positions of key stakeholders diverge on the terms and scope of any future agreement.