Unexpected Voting Patterns: Citizens on Welfare Favor AfD

Recent election results have revealed a surprising trend among recipients of the Bürgergeld (citizen's income), who overwhelmingly supported the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. This phenomenon raises questions, particularly as the AfD advocates for significant cuts to social welfare programs.

The new government, led by Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has plans to replace the Bürgergeld with a 'New Basic Security' system. Proposed changes include reduced financial support for those not actively working, and the potential elimination of benefits for individuals deemed 'total refusers' of employment. The exact structure of the upcoming reforms remains uncertain and will likely depend on the coalition negotiations with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has expressed support for maintaining the Bürgergeld.

Voting patterns indicate that those unemployed predominantly favored parties that propose tightening social welfare policies. While specific data on Bürgergeld recipients is lacking, the Infratest dimap institute provided insights from post-election surveys focused on the unemployed. The CDU and its Bavarian counterpart, the CSU, each garnered 16% of the votes from this demographic, placing them second overall.

However, the AfD emerged as the primary choice among unemployed voters, receiving 34% of their votes--13 percentage points above their overall support. The party's agenda concerning social benefits and unemployment assistance contradicts the interests of those relying on such support, prompting experts to label this voting choice as paradoxical.

As outlined in the proposed reforms, the new unemployment benefits would only be available after three years of employment, a significant increase from the current one-year eligibility. Furthermore, the duration for receiving benefits would be capped at six months, with longer-term eligibility requiring 15 years of employment instead of the previous two-year requirement. This shift could push many unemployed individuals into the basic security system sooner, which offers significantly lower support.

Despite the AfD's proposals that threaten their financial security, many Bürgergeld recipients have chosen to support them. Political scientist Elisa Deiss-Helbig from the University of Konstanz noted that individuals in challenging economic situations often perceive their circumstances differently than external assessments suggest. Furthermore, many may not be fully aware of the AfD's positions or fail to connect their personal situations with the party's proposed policies.

Other pressing issues, such as immigration and internal security, appear to influence the voting behavior of these citizens more significantly than social welfare concerns. Survey data indicate that 38% cited immigration and 33% pointed to security as critical factors in their electoral decisions. Deiss-Helbig also mentioned that disappointment with the SPD's handling of social policies during their tenure, particularly regarding stricter sanctions, likely did not play a decisive role in their voting choices.

Widespread insecurity and feelings of alienation, exacerbated by multiple crises, have been noted by Deiss-Helbig, who remarked that right-wing populist parties skillfully leverage these sentiments by identifying scapegoats and offering simplistic solutions to complex issues. Vulnerable populations, such as the unemployed, are particularly susceptible to feelings of loss and uncertainty, especially during economic downturns.

Helena Steinhaus, representing the interests of welfare recipients through her organization, emphasized that the AfD has effectively transformed the conversation around resource distribution from a conflict between socioeconomic classes into one framed as a competition between citizens and non-citizens. This narrative has gone largely unchallenged by centrist parties.