Understanding the Weather Factors Behind Carolina Wildfires

In early March 2025, numerous wildfires erupted across North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia due to a combination of strong winds, unusually dry conditions, and low humidity. The fires emerged following a year marked by extreme weather fluctuations, which included a flash drought during the summer months, severe flooding from hurricanes in September, and a return to drought conditions in the subsequent winter.

Although storms on March 5, 2025, aided in extinguishing many of the active fires, the Southeast's fire season is just beginning, raising concerns among wildfire experts regarding the future of fire management in the region.

According to recent assessments, much of North and South Carolina has been experiencing abnormally dry conditions, categorized as moderate drought, since at least November 2024. The persistent lack of precipitation throughout the winter months has desiccated local vegetation, creating ample fuel for potential wildfires. Under such dry circumstances, even a single lightning strike or a human-caused fire, combined with gusty winds, can ignite a wildfire.

While the region did experience significant flooding during late summer 2024 due to Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Helene, the aftermath left the ground parched once again, leading into the dry winter of 2025. This cycle of drought and flooding highlights the precarious balance of weather patterns in the Carolinas.

Historically, wildfires are not uncommon in the Carolinas; they are an integral part of the ecosystem. Certain plant species, such as the Venus flytrap and pitcher plants, depend on regular fire activity for their survival, as fire helps to clear out competitive underbrush that blocks sunlight. Additionally, various wildlife species rely on the regrowth of native plants after a fire for their habitats and food sources.

Wildfire recurrence intervals, which indicate how frequently fires have traditionally occurred in specific areas, vary across the region, ranging from every one to ten years in the Piedmont and Coastal Plains to every ten to forty years in the Appalachian Mountains. However, the trend of extinguishing unplanned wildfires means that the underbrush, which would typically burn every decade or so, has accumulated over time. This buildup can lead to more intense and damaging wildfires when fires do occur.

To mitigate the risks associated with this accumulation of vegetation, land managers often implement controlled burns, intending to replicate the natural fire cycle in a safe manner. These prescribed fires are vital for managing vegetation that could otherwise contribute to larger wildfires.

Concerns are rising regarding the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, including droughts, throughout the United States, particularly in the Southeast and the Carolinas. Rising temperatures enable the atmosphere to retain more moisture, which can intensify precipitation during storms while simultaneously extending periods of dryness. In regions with dense vegetation, such as the Southeast, prolonged dry spells can elevate the risks of wildfires.

Data from the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that the southeastern United States has experienced more drought occurrences than other regions in the country over the first two decades of the 21st century. The variability in weather patterns complicates efforts to manage forest undergrowth through prescribed burns, as these burns require specific conditions--namely, dry vegetation and calm winds--to be safely conducted. As climate change continues to impact weather patterns, the ideal conditions for controlled burns may become increasingly rare, thereby heightening the risk of severe wildfires.