Study Reveals Limitations of Known Risk Factors in Disease Development

The aging population is witnessing a rising trend in multimorbidity, wherein individuals suffer from multiple chronic diseases simultaneously. The interconnected nature of these diseases necessitates a deeper understanding of the risk factors that contribute to their accumulation. While previous research primarily focused on individual risk factors and the diseases associated with them, a new study takes a more comprehensive approach.

Published in The Lancet Healthy Longevity, this study examines both measured risk factors from birth through middle age and latent factors that influence chronic disease incidence later in life. The research encompasses eight organ systems: cardiovascular, metabolic, gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal, respiratory, neurological, psychiatric, and sensory organs.

Researchers analyzed 22 distinct risk factors, which included demographic variables such as age and sex, early life conditions (like birth size and childhood growth), socioeconomic status, lifestyle choices (including smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and dietary habits), as well as clinical indicators and biomarkers such as body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, and blood glucose levels.

In addition to these well-documented factors, the study also explored latent factors that might contribute to disease development but are not yet fully understood or measured. Potential examples of these latent factors include environmental influences such as air pollution, genetic predispositions, and other undiscovered elements.

Key findings from the research indicate that both measured and latent factors collectively account for up to 75% of the incidence of chronic diseases across the studied organ systems. Specific factors like age, BMI, hypertension, and hyperglycemia were significant predictors of disease onset in various organ systems. Notably, the combination of BMI, hypertension, hyperglycemia, smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, and diet was found to explain approximately 40% of the cases linked to the measured factors.

The presence of latent factors underscores the complexity of disease development, suggesting that certain risk factors remain unidentified. This finding points to the necessity for ongoing research to uncover new risk factors that may influence chronic diseases.

According to the study, while individuals can actively manage their risks through lifestyle adjustments related to BMI, blood pressure, blood glucose, and other behaviors, there is also a critical need for national-level interventions to address these risk factors on a broader scale. The emphasis is placed on public health strategies that can help mitigate disease risk across populations.

The study monitored disease incidence among participants from middle to old age, utilizing national registry data from a cohort of 2,000 individuals born between 1934 and 1944 in Helsinki.

For further details, the complete study can be accessed in The Lancet Healthy Longevity.