Government Transition: Speculations on the New Cabinet's Composition

As discussions intensify behind closed doors, the question of who will assume key positions in the new government remains a hot topic, despite a lack of public discourse on the matter. With coalition negotiations set to begin, speculation is rife regarding the potential members of a cabinet likely to be led by the anticipated Chancellor Friedrich Merz from the CDU.

Currently, there are 15 federal ministries, each headed by a minister who is part of the cabinet led by the Chancellor. Additionally, the chief of the Chancellery holds the status of a federal minister, totaling 17 members in the previous coalition. However, following the exit of the FDP from the coalition, this number has been reduced to 15. As new coalitions often lead to restructuring of ministries, it is expected that the number of ministries will not increase, especially with the emphasis on bureaucratic reduction. Merz is particularly keen on establishing a Digital Ministry, which would necessitate the consolidation or elimination of another ministry.

Discussions are ongoing about which ministries might be affected. The Union has proposed merging the Ministry for Development into the Foreign Office, which faces resistance from the SPD, currently represented by Minister Svenja Schulze. Furthermore, the SPD's independent Ministry for Construction and Housing might be considered redundant by some in the Union, potentially leading to its amalgamation with the Ministry of Transport into an Infrastructure Ministry.

The distribution of ministerial positions among the coalition parties remains a pivotal issue. It is widely anticipated that the position of Chancellor and the head of the Chancellery will be held by the CDU, with a likely distribution of 6-6-3 across the CDU, SPD, and CSU, respectively. This distribution reflects the relative strength of each party in the coalition.

Typically, the allocation of ministries is finalized in the coalition agreement, while the selection of candidates falls to the respective parties. A significant question for the SPD involves the future role of its party leader, Lars Klingbeil. He may continue to influence government policy as the party and parliamentary leader, though it is increasingly likely he will become the Vice Chancellor, positioning himself for a potential candidacy for Chancellor in 2029.

Klingbeil's interest in foreign policy might lead him to the more influential Finance Ministry, especially given the popularity of Boris Pistorius, who is expected to retain his role as Defense Minister. This arrangement would mean that the SPD would not hold both the Foreign and Defense Ministries, leaving the Union to nominate a candidate for the former. If Pistorius remains in Defense, the Chancellor's Office and Foreign Ministry could both be led by the CDU for the first time in nearly six decades.

Several names are circulating within the Union for the Foreign Ministry position, including former NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet, who is well-connected in Europe, and Johann Wadephul, the Vice-Chairman responsible for Foreign and Defense in the parliamentary group. Other potential candidates include Norbert Röttgen and David McAllister, both of whom have experience in European affairs.

Within the CDU, Carsten Linnemann, the party's Secretary General, is viewed as a strong candidate for the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Thorsten Frei, the parliamentary group's managing director, is also in contention for multiple roles, including Interior Minister or the head of the Chancellery. The CDU's former Health Minister, Jens Spahn, and Andreas Jung, a prominent expert in climate and energy, are likewise considered for ministerial roles.

The representation of women in the new cabinet is also a key consideration. The SPD is expected to maintain gender parity, likely resulting in a distribution of three male and three female ministers. Nancy Faeser may not continue as Interior Minister, an office likely to be handed to the Union. She could, however, transition to the Justice Ministry. Svenja Schulze has expressed interest in remaining as Minister for Development, while party leader Saskia Esken is under pressure but remains a candidate for a cabinet position.

Notably, the SPD faces challenges with several ambitious candidates from Lower Saxony, including Klingbeil and Pistorius, creating potential conflicts over cabinet roles. Hubertus Heil's prospects for retaining the Ministry of Labor hinge on his experience and public favor.

In the CSU, Alexander Dobrindt, a leading figure, is anticipated to join the cabinet, potentially in a significant role such as Interior or Economic Minister. Dorothee Bär, the former Digital State Secretary, is also seen as a strong candidate, possibly for the Ministry of Research.

As negotiations progress, the political landscape continues to shift, reflecting the complexities of forming a coalition government in Germany.