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As the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific evolves, Vietnam finds itself navigating a precarious path between the competing influences of the United States and China. The recent enhancement of defense cooperation between Washington and Hanoi aims to curb China's growing dominance in the region, while Vietnam simultaneously fosters close security ties with Beijing to maintain its regime's stability.
Over the past four years, the Biden administration has significantly bolstered defense relations with Vietnam, culminating in a formal strategic partnership established during President Biden's visit to Hanoi in September 2023. This partnership reflects a mutual interest in addressing shared security concerns, particularly in response to China's assertive actions in disputed maritime territories.
While the strengthening of U.S.-Vietnam defense ties represents a strategic move, it risks oversimplifying the complexities of Vietnam's foreign policy. The Vietnamese government, while seeking U.S. support for maritime defense, has simultaneously deepened its internal security cooperation with China, recently hosting President Xi Jinping for a visit that was hailed by Vietnamese officials as a historic milestone.
This dual engagement does not indicate insincerity in Vietnam's alignment with the United States. Rather, it highlights Hanoi's strategic maneuvering to leverage support from both superpowers against perceived Chinese threats to its sovereignty and maritime claims in the South China Sea. However, this partnership is fraught with limitations; should tensions rise, China's substantial influence may constrain Vietnam's options, particularly regarding the survival of its political regime.
Recent reports suggest that the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump may visit Vietnam to commemorate the 30th anniversary of normalized relations between the two nations. While the Trump administration previously prioritized improving ties with Vietnam, the current geopolitical climate presents unique challenges. The new administration must approach Vietnam's hybrid security strategy with caution, as miscalculations could lead to overestimating U.S. influence in Hanoi and the broader Asian region.
Both Vietnam and China assert claims over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, leading to recurring disputes regarding control of these areas in the South China Sea. While the U.S. has refrained from taking sides in these territorial disputes, it has increasingly acknowledged Vietnam's concerns as China's presence in the region has grown more assertive.
The Biden administration has emphasized the importance of maritime security cooperation with Vietnam, framing it as a critical component of their strategic partnership. U.S. officials have identified Vietnam as a pivotal state in the emerging great power competition, suggesting that deeper ties could significantly shape regional dynamics.
In recent years, the U.S. lifted long-standing arms embargoes against Vietnam, facilitating the sale of lethal weapons and fostering several cooperative initiatives. High-profile visits from U.S. aircraft carriers have signaled a new level of defense collaboration, complemented by increasing arms transfers, including recent shipments of training aircraft and patrol vessels.
Simultaneously, Vietnam has maintained a robust internal security partnership with China, focusing on regime stability rather than external threats. This partnership is underscored by the Vietnamese leadership's recognition of the need to balance its relations with both superpowers, as increasing ties with the U.S. could inadvertently threaten its internal political security.
During Xi Jinping's visit in December 2023, he underscored the importance of prioritizing political security, urging Vietnam to ensure the socialist regime's stability. Vietnam's support for China's global security initiatives reflects this alignment, as both nations collaborate on internal security matters to maintain social stability.
While the Pentagon engages with Vietnam's defense ministry to promote regional peace, Hanoi's security apparatus continues to strengthen its ties with China to counter external influences deemed hostile to its regime. As Vietnam navigates this complex landscape, its strategy emphasizes the necessity of maintaining autonomy while engaging with both powers to secure its national interests.
Vietnam's approach to security cooperation illustrates its intent to remain independent amid escalating great power rivalries. By balancing relationships with both the U.S. and China, Vietnam seeks to harness the distinct security advantages each offers, positioning itself as a key player in the shifting dynamics of Asian security.
As Vietnam's security landscape evolves, the need for nuanced understanding and cooperation on various fronts, including cybersecurity and transnational crime, will be paramount. The potential for meaningful collaboration exists, but it will require careful consideration of the competing interests that define Vietnam's foreign policy.
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