The Rise of the Bread Industry Amidst the Decline of Traditional Bakeries

In many German households, baked goods are a staple on the dining table. However, the question arises: who is actually baking bread, pretzels, and rolls? The landscape of the baking industry is evolving.

Recent findings from the Food, Beverage, and Hospitality Union (NGG) reveal a significant shift in consumer behavior, as more Germans are purchasing their bread from large bakeries or supermarkets. While traditional bakeries have been on the decline for several years, the bread industry is expanding. The NGG attributes this trend to a growing dominance of large retail chains and industrial bakeries.

In 2023, the total revenue of the baking industry, which employs around 282,000 workers, rose to EUR21.8 billion. However, the number of traditional bakeries has decreased by 30% over the past decade, resulting in the loss of approximately 20,000 jobs, according to a joint analysis by the NGG and the Hans Böckler Foundation.

Over the years, the prices of bread and rolls have increased significantly. Data from the Federal Statistical Office indicates that from 2019 to 2023, the prices of baked goods rose by over 33%. Like many other sectors, the baking industry is grappling with high energy costs, labor shortages, and extensive bureaucracy.

While traditional bakeries are disappearing, many large-scale operations are thriving. The number of major supply bakeries, such as Harry Brot and Lieken Urkorn, which supply supermarkets with packaged bread, has increased from about 113 in 2014 to 133 in 2024. The NGG's analysis indicates that the industry's structure has shifted markedly towards larger players, which now account for the majority of the revenue. Specifically, 55 out of approximately 8,100 bakeries generate more than EUR50 million in revenue, collectively holding a 36% market share.

The employment landscape is also changing, with nearly 62,000 individuals now working in large enterprises--an increase of 9,000 over the past ten years. Conversely, smaller and medium-sized businesses have seen a decrease of 26,000 employees, bringing their total to 139,000.

Although the overall number of employees in the industry has increased by about 2,000 due to a resurgence in business activity, this growth primarily stems from an increase in mini-jobs. NGG Chairman Guido Zeitler expressed concern that this trend signifies a shift towards less stable and lower-quality employment conditions. Many workers, particularly sales staff in bakeries, report high levels of stress due to staff shortages and time pressures, as noted by study leader Stefan Stracke from wmp consult.

The issue of personnel and skilled labor shortages remains one of the most significant challenges facing the industry. Some bakeries have begun recruiting trainees from Southeast Asia and North Africa. The proportion of apprentices in the baking sector with a migration background is notably high. However, there is a positive trend regarding the number of trainees; in 2024, there was a reported increase of 11.4% in baker apprentices and 22.5% in sales staff apprentices compared to the previous year, totaling around 11,000 apprentices--about 1,000 more than the year before. This increase follows a prolonged decline in apprentice numbers.

Nonetheless, a considerable number of trainees are still dropping out of their programs. Between 2018 and 2023, the dropout rate for bakery sales apprentices fluctuated between 25% and 29%, while for baker trainees, it ranged from 18% to 23%.

To make the baking profession more appealing, some suggest shifting work hours from night to day, although comprehensive changes in this direction remain infrequent. Many businesses are striving to perform preparatory tasks during the day, but certain responsibilities, such as baking and delivering goods, will continue to require night shifts or early morning hours.