Seismic Activity Raises Concerns of Potential Volcanic Eruption Under Vatnajökull

Recent seismic events in Iceland have ignited fears of a possible volcanic eruption beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, the largest in Europe. Experts are closely monitoring the situation as magma accumulates approximately ten kilometers below the Bárdarbunga volcano, which is located in the northwestern part of the glacier.

According to the head of the volcano and earthquake division of the Icelandic Meteorological Office, there has been an uptick in seismic activity in recent months, characterized by larger earthquakes as pressure builds underground. This situation suggests that an eruption is inevitable, though predicting the exact timing remains challenging. Experts caution that it could take years for the eruption to occur, and various eruption scenarios could unfold.

Should an eruption occur beneath the glacier, catastrophic flooding could result due to the rapid melting of ice. The Icelandic Civil Protection Agency has raised the alert level, indicating that they will closely monitor the situation for any potential threats to human life, the environment, and infrastructure.

On Tuesday, the region around the Bárdarbunga volcanic system experienced its most intense swarm of earthquakes in a decade, reminiscent of the seismic activity prior to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, which led to massive ash clouds and significant disruptions to global air travel. During this recent seismic event, approximately 130 earthquakes were recorded within a few hours, with 17 of those measuring 3.0 or higher on the Richter scale, including one that reached a magnitude of 5.1.

Experts emphasize that while the current situation bears similarities to past eruptions, the Bárdarbunga volcano is significantly larger than Eyjafjallajökull. If an eruption were to occur beneath the glacier, it could produce substantial ash plumes, potentially impacting air travel once again. The effects would depend on the eruption's strength, duration, and wind patterns, though lessons learned from previous events could help mitigate disruptions to air traffic.

In contrast to the situation at Bárdarbunga, the Reykjanes Peninsula, located southwest of the capital Reykjavik, has been experiencing frequent fissure eruptions since 2021. These eruptions result in the formation of long cracks from which lava flows emerge, indicating ongoing volcanic activity in the region.

Despite the regularity of these volcanic phenomena, experts warn that the threat of eruptions remains real, particularly with the potential for significant activity at Bárdarbunga. They anticipate that the next eruption could occur as soon as late January or early February, although its effects would likely be more localized compared to a potential eruption under the Vatnajökull glacier.