Political Turmoil in Germany: Merz's Attempt to Collaborate with AfD Faces Backlash

In the lead-up to the Bundestag elections, Germany's political landscape is experiencing significant unrest, primarily driven by the ongoing migration debate. Despite the heightened tensions, recent polls indicate little to no change in voter sentiment.

Berlin stands at a crossroads as Friedrich Merz, the CDU's candidate for chancellor, sought to advance stricter migration laws following a stabbing incident in Aschaffenburg. This effort involved a controversial alliance with the far-right AfD party, which ultimately did not succeed. However, the fallout from this collaboration has sparked widespread demonstrations against the CDU's association with the AfD, yet polling numbers remain surprisingly stable, leading analysts to describe the situation as a 'zero-sum game.'

According to political researcher Matthias Jung, the protests, while galvanizing the opposition, are also reinforcing the CDU's base. He notes that these demonstrations serve as a means of self-affirmation for certain voter segments aligned with the CDU. Jung posits that there is a parallel mobilization occurring that contributes to the overall stability observed in polling data.

Jung further explains that the controversy surrounding migration has led voters to form strong opinions. He asserts that those particularly sensitive to crime associated with migrants or asylum seekers have likely aligned themselves with the AfD long ago. This sentiment echoes the views of Stefan Merz, a researcher at Infratest dimap, who states that the political landscape is more entrenched than it was before the 2021 elections. Voters have already established their positions on key issues, making them less susceptible to change.

Despite the Union's attempts to shift public opinion, the overall sentiment remains lukewarm. Discontent with the federal government has not translated into significant gains for the opposition, indicating that enthusiasm for the CDU is lacking. Stefan Merz points out that instead of consolidating support against the current government, Friedrich Merz's approach has pushed the CDU towards more conservative and ordoliberal policies, which may not resonate well with a broader electorate.

As the elections approach, many questions linger regarding the potential impact of the ongoing protests and the CDU's strategy moving forward. The political dynamics in Germany are complex, with the migration issue continuing to dominate the conversation and shape voter behavior.