The Next Ice Age Could Begin in 10,000 Years Without Climate Change

Recent research conducted by an international team of scientists has revealed insights into how changes in Earth's orbit around the sun may influence ice age cycles. This study, led by the University of Cardiff, highlights a pattern of orbital changes that aligns closely with climate history over the past 2.5 million years. According to Stephen Barker, a geoscientist and lead researcher on the study, the findings are so compelling that it is astonishing that they were overlooked in the past. The team concluded that, without the influence of anthropogenic climate change, the next ice age might commence in approximately 10,000 years.

The connection between the current ice age and variations in Earth's orbit has been acknowledged for some time. However, identifying the specific orbital parameters that trigger the onset and conclusion of ice age cycles has proven challenging, largely due to the difficulties in accurately dating ancient ice ages. The researchers overcame these challenges by employing an alternative analysis of data related to ice sheet expansion and ocean temperature measurements. This analysis allowed them to identify an orbital change that precedes the onset of an ice age and another that corresponds to its conclusion, detailed in their publication in the journal Science.

The team was able to confirm this connection for the last 900,000 years. They found that, should human activities not interfere with the climate, the next significant cooling period characterized by expansive ice sheets would likely begin in 10,000 years. However, Gregor Knorr, a co-author from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, noted that this scenario is highly improbable due to the substantial amounts of CO2 that humanity has already released into the atmosphere, which has significantly altered the climate trajectory.

Looking ahead, the research team aims to investigate how climate conditions are expected to evolve over the next 10,000 to 20,000 years and what long-term effects human-induced climate change may have during that period.