Political Influence of Eastern Voices Remains Limited

The recent Bundestagswahl in Leipzig has shown a significant early turnout, with 39.3% of eligible voters casting their ballots by 10 AM, marking an increase from the previous election's 36.6%. The popularity of mail-in voting has also risen, with 31.2% of voters participating through absentee ballots prior to the polling stations opening.

However, the political representation from Eastern Germany remains a topic of concern. A considerable portion of voters from the region is not reflected in the newly elected parliament or potential government coalitions. This is partly attributed to the rising success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has garnered substantial support in the East.

It is crucial to note that a parliamentary majority does not equate to a majority among voters. When considering non-voters and those who supported smaller parties, only about two-thirds of eligible voters are represented in the Bundestag. Should a coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD form the government, they would rely on the support of merely 37% of the eligible voting population.

Further compounding this issue is the presence of individuals who are not permitted to vote, such as foreign nationals and younger citizens, which reduces the representation of the population backing potential governing parties to just a quarter.

The voting patterns in Eastern Germany are particularly concerning, where high abstention rates have been observed. Many eligible voters chose not to participate, reflecting trends seen in certain Western cities like Gelsenkirchen and Bremen, where abstention rates also reached around 25%.

Moreover, a notable number of votes cast were for parties that did not achieve seats in the Bundestag, particularly affecting the East, where support for the BSW was more pronounced than in the West. The party narrowly missed the 5% threshold, rendering their votes ineffective in terms of representation.

If a coalition between the Union and SPD is formed, it is likely that Eastern interests will remain underrepresented in government. Voters from the region primarily supported parties that are positioned in opposition, such as the AfD and Die Linke, the latter achieving significant results in areas like East Berlin.

The combination of high abstention rates and significant votes directed towards opposition parties means that the Eastern German electorate will have limited influence in a potential black-red coalition. This coalition would predominantly draw its support from Western regions, where traditional voter bases for Union and SPD still exist, particularly in rural areas of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony.

Nonetheless, even in these regions, only a minority of eligible voters backed these traditional parties, with areas such as the Hochsauerlandkreis being exceptions. In stark contrast, parts of Berlin, including Friedrichshain, Kreuzberg, and Prenzlauer Berg Ost, have shown that as little as 20% of eligible voters support the potential governing partners.