Latest Insa Poll Reveals Shift in German Political Landscape

As 2024 draws to a close, a recent Insa poll indicates a slight decline for the Union party while another political group experiences a significant drop. The poll, conducted for Bild am Sonntag, shows that the CDU and CSU, collectively known as the Union, have fallen by one point to 31% compared to the end of 2023. Despite this decline, they remain ahead of other parties.

In contrast, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has gained momentum, increasing its support by one point to 17%, which marks a two-point increase from the previous year. The Green Party maintains its standing at 12%, showing no change from last week or a year ago. Meanwhile, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) has lost one point, now standing at 4%. The BSW party, if elections were held today, would secure 7%, while the Left party lags behind with just 3%. Notably, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has seen a decline of three points compared to the previous year, now at 20%.

The Insa poll surveyed 1,002 individuals from December 23 to 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The poll results reflect the evolving sentiments among the German electorate as the country prepares for the upcoming Bundestag elections.

When respondents were asked about the primary challenges facing the government in 2025, inflation was the top concern, cited by 56% of participants. Other significant issues included pension security (54%) and the need for affordable housing (51%). Economic growth also emerged as a concern, with 50% of respondents acknowledging its importance, a five-point increase from previous surveys.

In a related context, Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, has firmly ruled out the possibility of a coalition with the Greens in the event of a Union victory in the upcoming elections. He articulated that the Union's stance on migrant policies is fundamentally incompatible with the Greens, particularly regarding the rejection of migrants at the German border, which he considers crucial.

Söder also criticized the Greens, suggesting they have become overly aligned with the views of party leader Robert Habeck. He expressed concern that Habeck's potential reappointment as Minister of Economics would negatively impact both the public mood and the economy in Germany, emphasizing that economic health is closely tied to public sentiment.

According to Söder, the Union's current stagnation in poll numbers can be attributed to uncertainty among potential voters. Many are questioning whether the upcoming elections will lead to a significant shift in governance or merely a continuation of previous policies associated with former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the Union's ability to address voter concerns and adapt to shifting sentiments will be crucial in the lead-up to the elections in 2025.