Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2024 YR4: James Webb Telescope Activation

The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 in order to clarify its size and trajectory. This information is crucial to determine whether this asteroid could impact Earth in eight years, and if so, assess the potential danger it poses. The European Space Agency (ESA) has announced this initiative, which comes amid growing concerns as the risk of an impact has not been ruled out despite 375 observations made to date.

The probability of an impact remains relatively low at approximately 2 percent. This means there is a 98 percent chance that the asteroid will miss Earth. However, depending on its actual size, which is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, the consequences of a potential impact could vary significantly. A smaller asteroid may cause localized damage, while a larger one could have regional effects.

The James Webb Space Telescope will utilize infrared observations to determine the asteroid's thermal emissions, leading to a more accurate measurement of its size. The telescope is scheduled to focus on 2024 YR4 for the first time in March, followed by another observation in May. These observations will also allow scientists to refine the asteroid's orbit. After May, the asteroid will be difficult to monitor for several years.

Discovered on December 27 using a telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 has recently topped the lists of ESA and NASA's most dangerous celestial bodies, given that its next close encounter with Earth on December 22, 2032, could potentially involve an impact. The risk level fluctuated recently, reaching as high as 2.3 percent before slightly decreasing, but it is still deemed serious enough to warrant ongoing attention from planetary defense experts.

On the Torino scale, which classifies the risk of asteroid impacts, 2024 YR4 currently resides at level 3. This categorization indicates that it is considered one of the most concerning asteroids currently known. Historically, only one other asteroid has achieved a higher classification: (99942) Apophis, which was downgraded after further study.

In response to the potential risk posed by 2024 YR4, two organizations recognized by the United Nations have initiated work to monitor the situation. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), coordinated by NASA, and the Space Planning Advisory Group (SPMAG) from ESA are collaborating on this effort. They have agreed to continue monitoring the asteroid and are discussing possible countermeasures, though concrete proposals remain premature. Should the likelihood of an impact remain in question by early May, their assessments will be re-evaluated.

This ongoing monitoring and research are critical as the scientific community works to understand and potentially mitigate the risks associated with near-Earth objects like 2024 YR4.