The Impact of Immigrant Voters on the Upcoming German Election

As Germany approaches its federal election, political parties are racing against time to appeal to a significant voting bloc: individuals with an immigration background. With over 7 million eligible voters--representing about one in eight voters--this demographic's influence could be pivotal in shaping the election outcome.

Research highlights that many of these voters feel overlooked by mainstream political parties, leading to a decline in their trust and engagement in the electoral process. According to studies conducted by the German Center for Integration and Migration Research, this group tends to have lower voter turnout compared to their non-immigrant counterparts.

Among the political parties, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) appears to hold the most potential among immigrant voters. However, a notable portion, approximately 20%, is drawn to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), despite its xenophobic stance. Many respondents expressed a lack of faith in any party's ability to address their concerns, with a significant number indicating that no party adequately represents their interests.

Interestingly, the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Left Party have garnered higher approval ratings within the immigrant community, while the Green Party has struggled to connect with these voters.

Key issues for these voters include economic stability and inflation, which are particularly pressing for those with an immigrant background. Many express greater concern regarding their financial security and living conditions compared to those without an immigrant background, who often prioritize crime and safety.

The AfD has been successful in appealing to certain subgroups of long-established immigrant communities by framing the narrative around new immigrants as the real issue, which resonates with some long-term residents from regions like the Middle East and North Africa.

Despite this, the German-Turkish community, traditionally aligned with the SPD, shows a declining interest in political participation. Many young individuals in this demographic feel alienated due to experiences of discrimination, which discourages them from engaging in the electoral process.

Another significant group among immigrants are the ethnic German resettlers from the former Soviet Union, often referred to as 'late repatriates.' This community has also exhibited feelings of disenfranchisement, particularly following geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia's actions in Ukraine. The AfD has actively sought to attract this demographic, positioning itself as a party that understands their concerns.

Historically, late repatriates have leaned towards the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), but recent shifts in immigration policy and political rhetoric have led to a decline in their support for the CDU. The AfD and the BSW are likely to benefit from these changes, especially as they present themselves as alternatives that resonate with the concerns of this group.

As the election date approaches, it remains to be seen how effectively political parties can address the needs and concerns of immigrant voters, a group that could significantly influence the overall election outcome.