Global Warming May Render Cities Too Hot for Olympics by 2050

Research indicates that rising global temperatures will exceed safe limits for hosting summer Olympic events in many cities by 2050, posing significant health risks for athletes and spectators alike. A recent analysis by CarbonPlan, a nonprofit focused on climate science, reveals that extreme heat will likely prevent cities, particularly in the eastern United States, from safely hosting the games during traditional summer months.

As the 2024 Paris Olympics approach, the unpredictable nature of summer weather is becoming increasingly apparent. The event has experienced a mix of rain, extreme heat, and pleasant sunny days, with temperatures reaching as high as 35 degrees Celsius. This uncertainty underscores the growing threat posed by climate change, which is leading to more frequent cases of heat exhaustion and heatstroke among athletes and attendees.

The concept of heat stress is measured using a metric known as the wet-bulb globe temperature, which takes into account heat, humidity, wind speed, solar angle, and cloud cover. According to the findings, nearly all cities in the eastern U.S. are projected to surpass the critical threshold of 27.9 degrees Celsius (82.1 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050. Exceeding this limit could necessitate the cancellation of sporting events due to health concerns.

Regions with high humidity, particularly those surrounding the Gulf of Mexico, from Florida to eastern Texas, are expected to face insurmountable challenges. A city like Atlanta, which successfully hosted the Olympics in 1996, would no longer be viable for the games under future climate conditions. Similarly, large areas of eastern China, including major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, as well as Hong Kong and parts of Southeast Asia, are also predicted to exceed safe heat levels.

As discussions about rescheduling the Summer Olympics to avoid peak heat intensify, historical precedents exist. For instance, Sydney hosted its 2000 games in September and October during the Southern Hemisphere's spring, while Rio de Janeiro scheduled its 2016 Olympics in August when temperatures are more temperate.

Potential future hosts in northwestern Europe, like London, Oslo, and Stockholm, may emerge as more suitable candidates due to milder climates. Conversely, Mediterranean cities, such as Palermo and Seville, are likely to be too hot. High-altitude South American cities may also become attractive options as global temperatures continue to rise.

Looking ahead, the upcoming Summer Olympics in Los Angeles are scheduled to take place in a city where the climate is moderated by the Pacific Ocean. Brisbane, set to host in 2032, will also hold its games during the winter months in late July to avoid the extreme summer heat, which rarely drops below 10 degrees Celsius.

Interest in hosting the 2036 Summer Olympics has emerged from more than ten countries, with only six having publicly declared their candidacies: India (Ahmedabad), Indonesia (Nusantara), Qatar (Doha), Turkey (Istanbul), Poland (Warsaw), and Chile (Santiago). However, data indicates that most of these locations will also exceed heat stress thresholds at some point. Santiago is the only city that remains below the limit throughout the year, even during the hottest months.

Experts emphasize that the overlap of peak heat with traditional Olympic scheduling poses significant risks for prospective hosts. Simple strategies could mitigate these risks, such as scheduling events for earlier in the day or later in the evening when temperatures are cooler. Additionally, selecting cities at higher elevations with more temperate climates could be a viable alternative.

Many cities that have previously hosted the Summer Olympics, including Beijing (2008), Athens, Rome, Atlanta, Tokyo, and Seoul, are projected to experience temperatures well above safe limits by 2050. Although some southern hemisphere cities like Sydney and Rio de Janeiro are technically on the list of hot locations, they may still be able to host during their cooler seasons.

The issue of extreme heat in sports is not a distant future concern. The Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which were postponed to 2021 due to the pandemic, recorded the highest temperatures ever for the event, with heat stress exceeding safe limits at over 31 degrees Celsius. Approximately one in every hundred athletes experienced heat-related illnesses during the games, although none required hospitalization, thanks in part to Japan's proactive measures.

In response to the extreme conditions, organizers relocated marathon and walking events to Sapporo, a cooler, mountainous area. Nonetheless, the heat and humidity remained challenging, leading to several instances of heat-related illnesses among participants. Experts advocate for the global sports community to reconsider event scheduling and to relax certain regulations, such as allowing additional player substitutions in sports like soccer to prevent athletes from overexerting themselves.