Germany Faces Ongoing Challenges in Achieving Technological Sovereignty

Recent projections indicate that Germany will continue to lag behind global leaders in technological sovereignty through 2030. According to new analysis from the research firm Forrester, China and the United States are expected to maintain their dominance in this area, with only marginal gains anticipated for Germany and other European countries over the next several years.

The Forrester Global Sovereignty Forecast, which for the first time evaluates 14 countries on their ability to independently develop and protect key technologies, shows that China is projected to achieve a score of 82 percent in technological sovereignty by 2030, with the United States close behind at 79 percent. These countries are expected to retain their significant lead, while the overall average among all surveyed nations will only inch from 39 to 40 percent. Mexico is positioned at the bottom of the index, maintaining a value of 20 percent throughout the period.

Germany, in particular, is expected to make minimal progress, with its index value rising only slightly from 34 percent in 2025 to 36 percent in 2030. Similar stagnation is projected for Spain, while France is anticipated to grow from 33 to 35 percent, the United Kingdom from 30 to 32 percent, and Italy from 27 to 29 percent. This slow advancement is attributed primarily to Europe's ongoing reliance on external providers for critical technologies, such as semiconductors and cloud computing services.

Forrester's analysis highlights that many major European economies remain dependent on foreign technology providers and strategic alliances to fill expertise gaps and mitigate risks associated with such dependencies. The report underscores that technological sovereignty is not synonymous with absolute self-sufficiency; rather, it assesses a country's capacity to develop, deploy, and safeguard essential technologies autonomously, making them less vulnerable to geopolitical pressures.

The sovereignty index measures nine core dimensions. These include national investments in artificial intelligence, the independence of cloud infrastructure, availability of skilled IT professionals, domestic development of AI models, the ratio of data center capacity to technology expenditures, operational independence of data centers, local semiconductor manufacturing, in-country software development, and processing of rare earth materials.

Merely possessing infrastructure such as data centers does not guarantee sovereignty, as operational dependencies often persist, particularly concerning hardware supply chains and cloud software management. Similarly, a strong domestic semiconductor industry is insufficient if other crucial components of the technology ecosystem are absent or outsourced.

Among the nine dimensions, the most significant improvements are anticipated in semiconductor manufacturing. The United States and South Korea are both forecast to increase their scores from 45 percent in 2025 to 79 percent in 2030. Japan is expected to rise from 36 to 53 percent, China from 40 to 51 percent, and India from zero to 13 percent. Despite these projected investments and increased production, Forrester continues to identify semiconductors and software as major vulnerabilities, given the concentration of chip supply chains and the dominance of a limited number of global software providers.

To address these challenges, the report suggests that European and other mid-sized economies should prioritize strategic partnerships and alliances that can help bridge skill gaps and reduce exposure to external risks. Efforts to enhance national competence in critical technology fields, while fostering collaboration across borders, are seen as key to improving technological sovereignty and resilience.

As nations strive to bolster their technological independence, the landscape will remain shaped by investments in infrastructure, talent development, and the ability to secure and control vital technology resources. The ongoing reliance on foreign providers, however, signals that Europe will need to continue seeking collaborative solutions to achieve greater sovereignty by the end of the decade.