Forsa Chief Critiques Merz on Migration Strategy, Strengthening AfD

Fri 14th Feb, 2025

The political landscape in Germany is witnessing significant shifts, particularly regarding the approach to migration policy. Manfred Güllner, the head of the Forsa polling institute, has pointed out that the focus of Friedrich Merz, the CDU leader and candidate for Chancellor from the Union parties, on the migration issue represents a critical misstep in strategy. Güllner argues that this emphasis has inadvertently bolstered the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party known for its right-wing stance.

Despite Merz's intention to recapture voters from the AfD by prioritizing migration in his campaign, Güllner believes this approach is fundamentally flawed. He notes that while the core supporters of the CDU might feel reassured by Merz's stance, the overall effect is a stabilization of the AfD's voter base rather than a reduction in its influence.

Following the collapse of the coalition government comprising the SPD, Greens, and FDP in November 2024, the Union parties initially saw a surge in support, reaching approval ratings of around 33-34%. However, recent polls indicate a decline, with the CDU and CSU now hovering around 30% or less.

Güllner emphasizes that the primary concerns for the electorate extend beyond migration, particularly regarding economic issues. He suggests that the Union parties should have concentrated their efforts on economic policy instead of solely on migration. This shift in focus could have potentially allowed the CDU to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the current government.

The Forsa chief also discussed the implications of the migration debate in the Bundestag, particularly how it has affected the standing of the Left Party. According to Güllner, the Left has experienced a resurgence, benefiting from its engagement in discussions surrounding migration. The party's leader, Heidi Reichinnek, has effectively positioned herself during this ongoing debate, which has helped improve the Left's visibility and appeal.

Güllner believes that the Union's failure to leverage the dissatisfaction with the coalition government has resulted in missed opportunities for gaining ground in the polls. He asserts that although CDU supporters remain steadfast, the party's strategy has failed to attract disillusioned voters from other parties.

In the context of the upcoming elections, the performance of the Union will be crucial, especially in light of their current poll standings. While the AfD may have stabilized its base, the potential for the Left to gain seats in the Bundestag could complicate the political dynamics further.

As the political narrative continues to evolve, the focus on migration, economic stability, and the strategies employed by major parties will be pivotal in shaping the outcome of future elections in Germany.


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