Financial Decisions Loom for Merz: Vote on Major Investment Package

In a critical session of the Bundestag, Friedrich Merz, the prospective new Chancellor from the CDU, faces a decisive moment as the parliament convenes to vote on a significant financial package. This plan, negotiated by the Union, SPD, and Greens, aims to unlock billions for investments in infrastructure, climate protection, and defense.

The proposed measures include changes to the constitution that would allow for an increase in borrowing to support these initiatives. However, securing the required two-thirds majority for these amendments remains uncertain. Both the Union and SPD view the passage of this plan as essential to maintaining financial and political flexibility in a challenging economic and security landscape.

The legislation seeks to amend the debt brake enshrined in the constitution, which mandates that federal and state governments operate within their financial means without additional borrowing. Due to economic weaknesses and international pressures, particularly related to the situation in Ukraine, exceptions to this rule are being proposed. Unlimited borrowing would be permitted for defense, civil protection, intelligence services, and cybersecurity, while a special fund of EUR500 billion would be established for infrastructure investments, including rail, bridges, and roads.

Additionally, the Greens have successfully negotiated for funds to also support investments aimed at achieving climate neutrality by 2045, a goal that will be explicitly stated in Article 143h of the constitution. This targets the balance of greenhouse gas emissions, ensuring that emissions do not exceed the amount that can be absorbed.

Debate surrounds whether the inclusion of a specific target year in the constitution could be interpreted as a new state objective, potentially leading to economic repercussions and giving rise to additional legal challenges from environmental organizations. Merz has countered these concerns, asserting that the 2045 target is already established in international agreements and the German Climate Protection Act, obligating political action.

The upcoming vote is expected to be closely contested. The old Bundestag, comprising 733 members, requires 489 votes for a two-thirds majority. The combined support from the Union (196), SPD (207), and Greens (117) totals 520 votes, providing a slim margin of 31 votes above the threshold. However, this majority is precarious, as some members have indicated they may abstain or oppose the vote; Merz has noted that two or three members from his party may not support the measure.

In a preliminary vote among the Greens, there were indications of abstentions and uncertain positions from some members. The SPD's parliamentary leader has also reported that at least one member will be absent due to illness and another is expected to vote against the package. With a named vote process in place, the outcome will clearly reflect each member's stance.

Efforts to halt the parliamentary session have been unsuccessful, as the Federal Constitutional Court has dismissed multiple requests to prevent the vote. These included appeals from members of the AfD, Left Party, FDP, and BSW, all deemed unfounded by the court.

Even if the Bundestag approves the package, it will still require ratification by the Bundesrat, where a two-thirds majority is also necessary. Out of 69 votes in the Bundesrat, 46 are needed for approval. The coalition of CDU, SPD, and Greens controls 41 votes, and with the addition of six votes from Bavaria, the requisite majority appears achievable. Following discussions, Bavaria has indicated it will support the proposal despite earlier reservations from the Free Voters.