Experts Warn of Rising Mpox Threat: A Global Health Concern

Recent warnings from health experts indicate that the Mpox virus poses a significant risk of becoming a serious global health threat. A study published in a leading medical journal highlights the urgent need for worldwide cooperation to combat this virus effectively.

Experts caution that a casual approach to Mpox could lead to dire consequences. Although predicting the virus's future trajectory is challenging, there are alarming signs of its potential to cause widespread epidemics or even pandemics. Key factors contributing to this risk include the virus's ability to spread between humans, the presence of multiple ongoing outbreaks of different virus clades, and a notably high transmission rate from animals to humans.

Currently, the variants of Mpox are predominantly transmitted through close human contact, particularly during sexual activities. The infection rate has surged in specific regions, notably in certain African countries. For instance, health authorities in Berlin recently reported a dramatic increase in Mpox cases, with over four times as many infections recorded this year compared to the previous two years.

As of late March, 43 cases had been documented, affecting primarily men with an average age of 34. Experts warn that upcoming large-scale events and festivals could further facilitate the spread of the virus among high-risk groups.

The transmission dynamics of Mpox have evolved, with intimate contacts becoming a major vector for the virus. This shift has resulted in longer transmission chains and persistent outbreaks. As of early April, Germany has reported a total of 154 confirmed cases this year, with many more believed to be unreported due to the stigma associated with the disease.

Mpox can cause symptoms such as rash, fever, and muscle pain, with severe cases primarily affecting children and immunocompromised individuals. Experts emphasize that the global response to Mpox must be prioritized, as current diagnostic tools and antiviral treatments are limited.

Research indicates that the virus is developing specific genetic mutations influenced by human enzymes, which could alter its virulence. The longer the virus circulates, the greater the risk of it adapting to humans.

Mpox is endemic to West and Central Africa and belongs to the same family of viruses that caused smallpox. While vaccination campaigns eliminated smallpox, the cessation of these efforts has led to a decline in immunity against Mpox, previously known as monkeypox. The virus has shown a tendency to jump from infected animals, like rodents and primates, to humans, leading to human-to-human transmission.

The first detection of Mpox outside Africa occurred in 2003, and a significant global outbreak emerged in 2022, primarily affecting Europe and North America. Currently, four distinct variants of the virus are circulating in Africa, which poses a competitive environment for evolutionary adaptation.

Experts express concern that if the virus establishes alternative transmission methods beyond close contact, it may spread more broadly within various populations, including children. The continuous increase in zoonotic cases in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo presents a troubling scenario, particularly for younger individuals.

In contrast to smallpox, which was ultimately eradicated, Mpox's animal reservoirs make complete eradication unlikely, as the virus could re-emerge following interruptions in human transmission. The global health community must enhance its efforts in Africa to prevent further outbreaks and mitigate the risks of Mpox.

In February, the World Health Organization classified the Mpox situation as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), aiming to draw heightened global attention to the issue. If international efforts to combat this virus do not intensify, the future trajectory of Mpox remains uncertain, and it may continue to pose a threat to global health.