The End of the Pau-Lötzsch Model in German Bundestag Elections
Since its inception in 1990, the Left Party has consistently maintained its presence in the Bundestag, largely attributed to the efforts of two prominent figures: Petra Pau and Gesine Lötzsch. Their successful campaigns in Berlin's electoral districts in 2002 allowed them to secure seats in the Bundestag, despite their party failing to clear the five-percent electoral threshold at that time.
Their contributions were pivotal in ensuring parliamentary continuity, paving the way for a significant re-entry during the early federal elections in 2005. The newly formed coalition, Linkspartei.PDS, which emerged from the alliance with the WASG, garnered 8.7 percent of the vote, largely influenced by the fallout from the Hartz reforms introduced by then-Chancellor Schröder.
Currently, the Left Party finds itself grappling with existential challenges once more. However, the electoral strategies that proved effective in the past are no longer applicable under the current electoral law, especially following a revision made by the Federal Constitutional Court last July. This ruling reinstated the basic mandate clause that the coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP had aimed to abolish. Consequently, for the upcoming elections, a party can enter the Bundestag with three direct mandates, even if its overall share of the second votes falls below five percent.
Importantly, the new regulations stipulate that not all successful direct candidates from a party can automatically gain entry to the Bundestag. Political analyst Frank Biermann explains that if a party fails to surpass the five-percent threshold yet wins one or two electoral districts, those candidates will not be permitted to take up their Bundestag seats. This aspect remains largely unknown to the public, leading to misconceptions about the election capabilities of well-known candidates like Sahra Wagenknecht.
The Federal Returning Officer has also confirmed this interpretation, clarifying that if only one or two candidates from a party achieve a majority in their districts, they will be disregarded in the distribution of seats, provided the party's overall vote count remains below five percent.
This situation, however, is not a direct result of the recent electoral reform, as noted by legal expert Christian Kirchberg, who contested the electoral law changes alongside Gregor Gysi at the Constitutional Court. Kirchberg pointed out that Pau and Lötzsch had previously benefitted from ambiguities in the electoral law, which were addressed by the legislature following an order from the Constitutional Court back in 2011.
Two exceptions exist within this framework: parties representing national minorities, such as the South Schleswig Voter Association (SSW), can send successful direct candidates to the Bundestag, regardless of the number or the overall vote percentage. The SSW currently holds one seat in the Bundestag. Additionally, independent candidates or those not affiliated with a party can also secure their mandates if they achieve a majority in their districts.
For instance, Klaus Stöber, a Bundestag member from the AfD, is running independently in West Thuringia after his party did not nominate him. Should he win, he will gain a seat in the Bundestag.
The Free Voters are similarly hopeful about leveraging the basic mandate clause to secure a place in the Bundestag. The party's federal chairman, Hubert Aiwanger, who also serves as Bavaria's Minister of Economic Affairs, is campaigning in a district where he previously won one of two direct mandates during the last state elections. Currently, polling suggests the Free Voters are receiving around 2 to 3.5 percent of the vote, placing Aiwanger in a position where he requires at least two additional successful candidates from his party.
In contrast, the BSW (a political party) has higher chances of securing a direct mandate through former football manager Oliver Ruhnert, who is contesting in Marzahn-Hellersdorf, a region where the BSW emerged as the leading force during the European elections. Notably, party leader Sahra Wagenknecht is not contesting in a district but is instead positioned atop the party's list for North Rhine-Westphalia. As stated by a party spokesperson, their strategy focuses on garnering second votes to surpass the five-percent barrier rather than depending on the basic mandate clause.
Interestingly, the new electoral law may also adversely affect the successful candidates from the CSU. Unlike previous elections, where a party could secure more direct mandates than its second-vote share, the revised rule limits a party to only as many mandates as it is entitled to based on its second votes. This change aims to prevent an expansion of the Bundestag, which had become a concern with the previous electoral framework.
Thus, the CSU could face a situation where winning too many direct mandates might limit the number of representatives entering the Bundestag. This has led to a shift in campaign strategies, as seen in a recent statement by a Green Party Bundestag member, who urged voters in Munich-West/Mitte to support him with their first votes to ensure direct representation.
However, it remains questionable whether a significant number of voters have fully grasped the implications of the electoral reforms, particularly when it comes to making tactical voting decisions.
