Potential Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4 on the Moon Remains a Concern

The asteroid designated 2024 YR4, measuring approximately 60 meters in diameter, poses no threat to Earth; however, its trajectory indicates a possible impact with the Moon during its next close approach in 2032. This assessment comes from preliminary observations conducted using the James Webb Space Telescope, as reported by the International Asteroid Warning Network coordinated by NASA.

The margin of error regarding the asteroid's size has significantly decreased, now estimated at just seven meters. The likelihood that its effective diameter exceeds 50 meters stands at 92%. If this threshold is surpassed, the European Space Agency's Space Planning and Mission Advisory Group (SPMAG) would need to initiate discussions regarding potential response strategies. While a collision with Earth is deemed impossible, the situation regarding the Moon is less definitive.

The findings indicate that the potential for a Moon impact on December 22, 2032, is greater than zero. Detailed reports suggest that the current probability of the asteroid colliding with the lunar surface is approximately two percent. In contrast, it remains far more likely that such an event will not occur. For the impact to be observable from Earth, it would need to happen on the Moon's side visible from our planet.

Experts in the field express cautious optimism regarding the situation. If all conditions align favorably, it could provide a unique opportunity for scientific research. The asteroid was first identified on December 27, shortly after passing near Earth. Subsequent observations revealed that a potential impact during its next encounter could not be ruled out, leading it to occupy a prominent position on ESA and NASA's lists of potentially hazardous celestial bodies.

For several weeks, 2024 YR4 was considered one of the most significant threats among known asteroids. It was only at the end of February that updated observational data confirmed there was no risk to Earth, with the current impact probability standing at a mere 0.000019 percent. Notably, the risk had previously exceeded one percent for an extended period, a rarity for similar objects.