Preparedness of Istanbul for Earthquakes: Expert Warns of Catastrophic Consequences

The threat of a significant earthquake in Turkey, particularly in Istanbul, is looming, and experts are raising alarms regarding the city's lack of preparedness. Renowned earthquake researcher Naci Görür has warned that the city could face catastrophic losses, with predictions suggesting the potential for hundreds of thousands of fatalities in the event of a major quake.

Two years after devastating earthquakes struck the region, specialists indicate that Istanbul remains ill-equipped to handle a future seismic event. Görür emphasized that approximately 100,000 structures in the city are at high risk of collapse, and the death toll could reach staggering numbers, possibly even into the millions when considering the city's dense population of 16 million residents.

Experts predict that an earthquake with a magnitude of around 7 is overdue for the metropolis. Despite the evident threat, there appears to be a significant lack of awareness among the local authorities, the central government, and the populace regarding the imminent danger, according to Görür. He criticized the insufficient measures taken towards enhancing earthquake resistance in Turkish cities.

In Istanbul, about 1.5 million residential and commercial properties are deemed vulnerable to seismic activity. Geology professor Sükrü Ersoy from Yildiz Technical University echoed these concerns, stating that many buildings have yet to undergo necessary reinforcements to withstand a severe earthquake. The high population density of the city further complicates the situation, making it challenging to mitigate potential damage even if appropriate precautions were in place.

The Turkish Minister of Urban Development, Murat Kurum, acknowledged the grim reality, asserting that Istanbul would struggle to withstand a significant earthquake. The anticipated epicenter of such an event is located approximately 15 kilometers offshore in the Sea of Marmara, along a tectonic plate boundary.

The Kandilli Observatory has estimated a 60% probability of an earthquake exceeding magnitude 7 occurring before 2030. Given these alarming statistics and the current state of preparedness, the urgency for improved infrastructure and emergency preparedness measures in Istanbul cannot be overstated.