Religious Dynamics in Syria: The Influence of Sunnis, Alawites, and Christians

Syria's religious landscape is predominantly Muslim, with Sunnis making up the majority of the population. However, the nation has been historically governed by a member of the Alawite minority, Bashar al-Assad, who ruled with an iron fist. Under his regime, Christians were often afforded protection, contrasting their treatment in other parts of the region.

The recent success of Syrian rebels and the ousting of long-time ruler Assad in late 2024 sparked international celebration. Yet, observers are left questioning how Syria will evolve in the wake of these changes. The future could see the establishment of a secular Islamic state that recognizes the rights of all citizens, or it could descend into an Islamist regime characterized by repression and prohibitive laws.

The ongoing violence, including civilian casualties and clashes with Assad loyalists, reflects deep-seated conflicts among various ethnic and religious groups, compounded by the interests of neighboring countries. The Sunni-Shiite divide within Islam plays a significant role, with Shiite militias receiving support from Iran and Hezbollah, while Turkey backs the victorious Sunni factions, who are also tasked with countering Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria.

Carsten Wieland, a Middle East advisor for the Green Party in the German Bundestag, recently evaluated the complex situation. He noted that Turkey has intensified military pressure to exacerbate tensions within Kurdish communities since 2019. "Turkey is primarily working towards an arrangement with Russia to solidify its influence in northern Syria," he stated. In contrast, Iran is focused on consolidating its Shiite presence in Syria through targeted land purchases and settlement initiatives, aiming to maintain a land corridor linking Shiite regions in Iraq through Syria to Hezbollah's stronghold in Lebanon.

There are various religious communities in Syria, including Sunni and Shiite Muslims, Alawites, Christians, Druze, Yazidis, and Jews. Experts warn that smaller religious communities may be caught in the crossfire during the power restructuring in Syria. Alawites, Christians, Jews, Yazidis, and Druze collectively represent only about 13 percent of the population. Historically, the Assad regime, which is of Alawite descent, provided a degree of protection to Christians against the Sunni majority. An attack in March 2025 has raised concerns that, despite reassurances from the interim president Ahmed al-Scharaa, these groups may still face reprisals.

Approximately half of the Syrian population identifies culturally with the Arab-speaking communities of neighboring countries. Kurds constitute the second-largest ethnic group, representing about 10 percent of the total population. Other ethnic minorities include Armenians, Turkmen, and Sunni Circassians, as well as Christian Arameans and Assyrians.

Muslims account for 87 percent of Syria's population, with Sunnis making up around 74 percent. The Sunni interpretation of Islam varies significantly across the region, ranging from conservative to very liberal views. The Shiite community, while numerically smaller at about 1 percent, holds a more substantial presence through the Alawite minority, which comprises approximately 12 percent of Syria's religious demographics. Notably, many members of the military and political elite under the Assad regime are of Alawite descent.

Christians, representing about 10 percent of the population, have seen their numbers decline from around 30 percent a century ago. They primarily reside in areas surrounding Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. The largest Christian community is the Syriac Orthodox, with other significant groups including Armenian Apostolic and various Catholic denominations. Many Syrian Christians have emigrated to countries such as Lebanon, Sweden, and the United States.

Historically, Christians in Syria enjoyed the freedom to practice their faith openly under Assad's rule, with official recognition of Christian holidays. This fostered an environment where Syria was considered one of the safest countries for Christians in the Middle East.

The Druze community, accounting for about 1 percent of the population, is a sect that has its roots in Shiite Islam, primarily residing in the Jebel Druze region. The Yazidis, numbering in the thousands, mainly inhabit the mountainous areas between Aleppo and Afrin, and the regions around Amude and Qamishli in northeastern Syria. Since 2014, Yazidis have faced ongoing persecution, particularly in Iraq, where they have been targeted by the Islamic State.

The current status of the Jewish community in Syria is uncertain, with estimates suggesting that only a small number remain, primarily in Aleppo and Damascus. The Jewish population, historically integrated, shares similar cultural traits with the Muslim population.

Despite the assurances of protection from the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), experts assert that this is merely a preliminary step following the fall of the Assad regime. Political analysts emphasize that rights and representation for minorities such as Christians, Yazidis, and Alawites must be firmly established to ensure their safety and participation in the new political landscape. The potential for a liberal system in Syria remains, despite the leading role of Islamist factions. The country's diverse makeup and the experiences of its people under oppression may lead to a collective push for freedom and rights beyond the influence of extremist groups.