Current Polls Indicate Potential Voting Trends in Germany

Recent polling data reveals significant insights into the potential voting landscape in Germany, should elections be held this coming Sunday. The polls indicate that the Union parties, comprising the CDU and CSU, along with the AfD, are leading with projected support around 25% each. Notably, the AfD has made substantial gains, closing the gap with the Union.

In contrast, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has experienced a decline since the last federal election in February 2025, with current support estimated at approximately 15%. The Greens are projected to maintain their position with support exceeding 10%, showing no notable change from previous figures.

However, the Left party has seen a slight increase in support, now hovering around the 10% mark. The AfD has recorded the most significant rise, gaining between 2 to 6 percentage points in recent surveys.

As for the Five Percent Threshold, the BSW party is currently polling between 3 to 5%, indicating a precarious position just below the threshold necessary for entering the Bundestag. Conversely, the FDP appears unlikely to secure a seat in the parliament, reflecting their low polling numbers.

It is important to understand that these polls merely reflect the current sentiments of the electorate, based on surveys typically involving around 1,000 respondents. The next scheduled federal elections are not expected until the early months of 2029, allowing significant time for shifts in public opinion.

Analysts at the Süddeutsche Zeitung have calculated a polling corridor based on the latest data from 15 different surveys to provide a clearer picture of the parties' standings. If the uncertainty ranges of two or more parties overlap, it may be challenging to determine which party is currently preferred by voters. Additionally, parties teetering close to the Five Percent Threshold may either successfully enter the parliament or fall short.

The results from the early federal election held on February 23, 2025, showed the Union, led by candidate Friedrich Merz, achieving a clear victory with 28.5% of the vote. The AfD followed in second place with 20.8%. The SPD, led at the time by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, saw a drop to 16.4%, while the Greens garnered 11.6% and the Left party achieved 8.8%. The BSW narrowly missed the threshold with 4.9%, and the FDP did not secure any seats, polling at 4.3%.