China Announces New Climate Goals Ahead of Global Conference
In a significant announcement just weeks before the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, President Xi Jinping of China outlined the country's ambitious climate objectives for the coming years. During a virtual address at the UN Climate Summit in New York, he stated that China aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from peak levels by 2035. This commitment includes increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in the country's energy consumption to over 30 percent and boosting the installed capacity of wind and solar energy to a total of 3600 gigawatts by 2035. This represents a sixfold increase compared to 2020 levels, according to Xi.
Despite this progress, coal remains the dominant source of energy in China's electricity generation. In 2024, approximately 58 percent of the country's power was generated from coal, with the total electricity production from this source reaching a record high of 5862 terawatt-hours. However, the overall coal consumption has shown fluctuations, with periods of decline observed between 2013 and 2016, as advancements in power plant technology have led to a decrease in coal use per kilowatt-hour produced.
China is currently leading the world in the expansion of renewable energy sources. Last year, renewables accounted for over 20 percent of the country's energy mix, with hydropower contributing around 13.5 percent. In contrast, nuclear power played a relatively minor role, accounting for nearly 4.5 percent, while natural gas contributed just 3.2 percent to the energy mix.
In terms of per capita carbon dioxide emissions, China ranked 11th globally in 2023, with an average of 8.35 tons per person. Qatar topped this list with 42.6 tons, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Germany, by comparison, had emissions of 7.16 tons per capita, placing it 13th in the rankings.
Experts have offered mixed assessments regarding China's new climate goals, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the United Nations framework. Muyi Yang from Ember, a climate think tank, described the updated NDCs as a vital step toward a cleaner and more sustainable energy future, suggesting that they signal a commitment that could catalyze investment and accelerate emission reductions. However, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) criticized the targets as insufficient, arguing that they fall short of what is necessary to align with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. They pointed out that the lack of a specified baseline year for emissions reductions leaves room for potential short-term increases in emissions.
China intends to reach its peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. As the world's largest emitter of CO2 and second-largest economy, China's strategies could influence other nations to adopt more ambitious climate targets. Experts believe that China might reach its highest CO2 emissions even before the 2030 deadline, facilitated by the relatively low costs of renewable energy in the country.
The COP30 conference is slated to commence on November 10 in Belém, Brazil, with approximately 190 countries expected to present new climate plans. A spokesperson for the UN climate secretariat indicated that UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell is actively engaging with various nations, including Brazil, China, and South Africa, to encourage more ambitious climate action, while also acknowledging the challenges many countries face, such as financial constraints and the uneven distribution of renewable energy benefits.