Baden-Württemberg CDU Repositions Ahead of State Election Amid Internal and External Pressures

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Baden-Württemberg has initiated significant strategic shifts as the party prepares for the upcoming state election in March 2026. During a recent party congress in Heidelberg, the CDU reaffirmed its commitment to regaining leadership in the state government after a prolonged period as a junior coalition partner to the Greens. The gathering served as both a platform to approve the new government agenda and to energize party members ahead of a pivotal electoral contest.

The conference concluded with the re-election of party leader and top candidate Manuel Hagel, who received near-unanimous support from delegates. Hagel, 37, has been tasked with leading the party back to the State Chancellery, a position the CDU lost in 2011 after nearly six decades in power. With the current Green Party Minister President, Winfried Kretschmann, not seeking another term, the CDU sees a renewed opportunity to reclaim its former status in the region.

Shifting Polls and Strategic Concerns

Recent polling indicates the CDU holds a notable lead in Baden-Württemberg, currently polling at 29 percent, ahead of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 21 percent and the Greens at 20 percent. However, this represents a decline from previous months, when the CDU was at 34 percent and the AfD at 16 percent. The narrowing margin has prompted introspection within the party, with members recognizing the importance of maintaining momentum and avoiding further losses to the AfD.

Internal debates have surfaced regarding the CDU's relationship with its federal leadership in Berlin. Local CDU members have expressed concern that national political dynamics, particularly coalition tensions and contentious policy debates, may negatively influence voter sentiment in the state. Some members have pointed to recent disputes over federal pension reforms and judicial appointments as contributing factors to declining confidence in the CDU's national leadership.

Leadership Dynamics and Communication Strategy

There has been a visible distancing of the Baden-Württemberg CDU from federal party leader Friedrich Merz, especially in light of recent controversies and communication challenges. Prominent party figures in the state have advocated for improved communication and decision-making processes at the federal level, emphasizing the need to focus on regional priorities and concerns.

Party leader Hagel has adopted a pragmatic approach, seeking to shift attention to issues of local economic development and social stability. In his address to party delegates, Hagel outlined a vision for Baden-Württemberg's future, emphasizing economic resilience and the importance of manufacturing and exports to the region. Notably, Hagel avoided direct references to the federal party leadership, instead highlighting the distinct direction and goals of the state CDU.

Firm Position Against AfD Cooperation

A central element of the party's strategy has been a clear rejection of any collaboration with the AfD. While some within the business community and party base have considered limited cooperation or support for a minority government, the CDU leadership has categorically ruled out such alliances. The party has framed the upcoming election as a decisive contest between itself and the AfD, cautioning that the latter's policy positions would undermine the economic interests of Baden-Württemberg, particularly its export-oriented industries.

Hagel emphasized that the AfD's platform--advocating for withdrawal from the euro and the European Union--would be detrimental to the state's prosperity. The CDU has positioned itself as the only viable alternative to prevent the AfD from gaining further influence, committing to neither cooperate nor form a coalition with the party under any circumstances.

Outlook for the Election

As the campaign intensifies, the CDU in Baden-Württemberg is seeking to consolidate its base while attracting undecided voters. The party's leadership has sought to differentiate itself from both federal politics and right-wing populist alternatives, focusing on economic competence and social responsibility. The state CDU's approach reflects its determination to address regional challenges, restore voter trust, and secure a return to government in one of Germany's most economically important states.