AfD Maintains Lead Over CDU/CSU as Voter Dissatisfaction with Merz Grows

The latest polling data reveals that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to outpace the CDU/CSU alliance in voter support, highlighting growing dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's performance. According to the most recent survey conducted by Forsa for RTL and ntv, only 23 percent of respondents currently express satisfaction with the CDU leader--a significant drop from the 42 percent recorded shortly after Merz assumed office.

The discontent is not limited to opposition party supporters. The survey indicates that 70 percent of SPD voters and 52 percent of CSU voters are also unsatisfied with the Chancellor's leadership. Notably, only the CDU's own supporters show a majority of positive sentiment toward Merz's work.

Low Confidence in Political Competence Across Parties

When asked about which party is best equipped to address Germany's current challenges, 54 percent of respondents said they could not identify any party as competent enough. The Union received the highest rating at 17 percent, showing a slight increase. The SPD and Greens each garnered support from just five percent of those surveyed, while the AfD received 13 percent, a minor decline from previous figures. The Left Party improved marginally, reaching four percent.

Key Issues Dominating Public Concern

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains the most pressing issue for German citizens, with 33 percent naming it as their primary concern. The survey period coincided with increased attention on the conflict, especially following a new peace plan proposed by the US administration. At certain points, up to 48 percent of respondents cited the Ukraine war as the most important political topic.

Other major concerns include the government's overall performance (29 percent), Germany's economic situation (23 percent), and debates on the future of the pension system (22 percent). Additional topics of interest were US politics (15 percent), environmental and climate policy (12 percent), developments in the Middle East (8 percent), the German armed forces (7 percent), and immigration (6 percent).

Current Party Support and Voter Indecision

The survey's 'Sunday question,' which measures party preferences if elections were held immediately, revealed minimal changes compared to the previous week. The AfD continues to lead with 26 percent, closely followed by the CDU/CSU at 25 percent. The SPD holds 14 percent, the Greens 12 percent, and the Left Party 11 percent. Both the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the FDP stand at three percent each, falling below the threshold for Bundestag representation. Other parties collectively account for six percent.

An important trend highlighted by the survey is the high percentage of undecided and non-voting respondents, now at 26 percent. This figure significantly exceeds the 17.9 percent recorded during the last federal election, indicating a potential rise in voter apathy or uncertainty.

Challenges Facing the Chancellor and Political Landscape

The poll results come at a time of mounting political challenges for Chancellor Merz, including contentious debates over the national budget, pension reforms, and Germany's response to international crises. These factors appear to have contributed to declining approval ratings, even among traditional supporters and coalition partners.

Polling experts caution that such surveys reflect public opinion at the time of questioning and are not predictive of actual election outcomes. Factors such as weakened party loyalties and last-minute voting decisions continue to complicate the interpretation of polling data. Nevertheless, the results point to a shifting political landscape in Germany, with established parties facing increased scrutiny and competition from emerging political forces.