AfD Surpasses CDU/CSU by Five Points in Latest Poll, Marking Lowest Union Support Since 2022
The latest nationwide polling data indicates a significant shift in Germany's political landscape, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) consolidating its position as the leading party. According to a recent survey conducted by the Insa polling institute for a major weekly publication, the AfD has maintained 28% support among respondents. In contrast, the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance has dropped to 23%, their lowest recorded figure in over four years.
This development further widens the gap between the AfD and the CDU/CSU to five percentage points, highlighting a growing trend observed in multiple recent surveys. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has also experienced a decline, falling to 13%. When combined, the two main governing parties now achieve only 36% support, a decrease of approximately one-fifth of their voter base since the federal election held in 2025.
The Green Party remains stable at 13%, equaling the SPD, while The Left party (Die Linke) holds steady at 11%. The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) both stand at 3%, falling short of the threshold required for parliamentary representation. Other minor parties have collectively increased their share by two percentage points, reaching 6%.
Political analysts note that the current coalition government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the CDU, faces ongoing challenges as support for both main governing parties continues to erode. The poll results reflect a growing voter preference for alternatives to the established parties, with the AfD consistently leading in recent months.
The poll, based on responses from 1,200 participants between May 4 and May 8, has a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The findings are consistent with other recent surveys, such as the Politbarometer published by ZDF and Tagesspiegel, which also rank the AfD as the strongest party.
Given the current distribution of party support, forming a majority coalition has become increasingly complex. With many smaller parties failing to surpass the five-percent threshold required for Bundestag seats, the overall parliamentary landscape remains fragmented. Traditional alliances between CDU/CSU and SPD are now insufficient to form a stable majority, while cooperation with the AfD has been categorically ruled out by other major parties. The CDU/CSU has also stated it will not enter into an alliance with The Left party.
Experts caution that while opinion polls provide a snapshot of public sentiment at the time of the survey, they are not definitive predictions of election outcomes. Factors such as declining party loyalty and last-minute voting decisions can influence results. Nevertheless, the current trends point to a significant transformation in German politics, with established parties facing mounting pressure to respond to shifting voter expectations.
The situation underscores the volatility of the political environment and the potential for further changes ahead of the next federal election. As parties assess their strategies, the coming months are expected to be crucial in determining the future balance of power in Germany's parliament.