Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2024 YR4: Impact Risk Remains

The asteroid 2024 YR4, classified as a potentially hazardous object, continues to be closely monitored as its potential for an impact with Earth remains a concern. Despite extensive observation efforts, the likelihood of a collision has not decreased and, in fact, has slightly increased in recent assessments.

NASA has reported that the probability of 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 stands at 1.4%. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency (ESA) has calculated that the asteroid will pass within approximately 75,000 kilometers of Earth, with an uncertainty of about 370,000 kilometers. Historically, one would expect that as more observations are conducted, the estimated risk would diminish; however, this has not been the case for 2024 YR4.

In a recent briefing from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), which is coordinated by NASA, it was noted that the asteroid will remain observable from Earth until approximately April. If the threat of an impact cannot be ruled out by then, further assessments may be necessary until 2028. Alternatively, space telescopes could provide additional observations during this time.

The IAWN report highlighted that a potential impact could occur shortly before Christmas in 2032, with possible locations including the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, central Africa, the Persian Gulf, or South Asia.

Discovered on December 27, 2024, using a telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 has maintained its position as one of the most closely monitored near-Earth objects (NEOs). It currently ranks as a class 3 threat on the Torino Scale, which evaluates the potential hazard posed by asteroids. This classification indicates that it warrants attention from both the scientific community and the public. A downgrade in its risk classification remains a likely outcome as more data becomes available.

Visual documentation of 2024 YR4 is increasing, including images captured by the Very Large Telescope operated by the European Southern Observatory (ESO) and footage released by NASA. A recent graphic from the IAWN illustrates the wide range of potential distances for the asteroid's trajectory during its next approach in 2032.

With a diameter estimated between 40 and 90 meters, an impact from 2024 YR4 could result in significant local or regional damage. Historical data suggests that asteroids of at least 18 meters in size can cause casualties upon impact, while those measuring 56 meters or more can create impact craters.